This article is an extract from the Telegraph’s Economic Intelligence newsletter. The Census Bureau estimates that the total number of employed workers across America is now lower than in early May. […] This is nothing close to a ‘V’, it is more like an ‘L’ right now for the US. […] The US jobs rally has ﬁzzled It is this sort of delayed reaction to output shocks that can cause downturns to metastasise, and it is why countercyclical stimulus must be maintained until the economy reaches escape velocity. […] The vast stock of pent-up savings and “high-powered money” may indeed catch fire and lead to economic overheating but it might equally lie inert as “precautionary savings”, and do so long enough for economic metastasis to set in. This episode is unusually binary and could go either way with considerable force, which is why it is so hard to judge.
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