On the Macro It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar , with just 36 stats to monitor over the week. We would expect the services PMI to be the key driver on the day. Barring dire numbers, the weekly jobless claims on Thursday and finalized consumer sentiment figures on Fridady will likely be brushed aside. Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk continues to linger and will also provide direction for the Greenback.
On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday. Following FED Chair Powell’s testimony last week, however, the minutes should have a muted impact on the Greenback. The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.36% at $97.999. Germany’s manufacturing PMI will continue to have the greatest impact alongside the Eurozone’s composite.
Germany’s 2 nd estimate GDP numbers for the 3 rd quarter will also need considering on Friday. Any deviation from prelim will influence. From the ECB, the financial stability report is due out on Monday, with the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes due on Thursday. We can expect the EUR to be sensitive to the report and less so to the minutes.
The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.30% to $1.1051. November CBI Industrial Trend Order figures are due out on Tuesday ahead of 3 rd quarter labor productivity numbers on Wednesday. While the stats will provide the Pound with direction, UK politics will continue to have the greatest impact on the Pound. Last week, the Tories were leading in the YouGov opinion polls by a country mile, which provided support to the Pound.
The GBP/USD ended the week up by 0.96 % to $1.2897. September manufacturing sales figures due out on Tuesday will be in focus ahead of October inflation numbers on Wednesday. Following a more cautious BoC, we can expect the Loonie to be particularly sensitive to the inflation figures and retail sales numbers due out on Friday. From elsewhere, we can expect the private sector PMIs out of the Eurozone and the U.S to influence at the end of the week.
On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes, due out on Tuesday and the PBoC’s rate-setting on Wednesday will also need considering. The RBA downwardly revised economic growth forecasts, consumer spending and wage growth in last week’s Statement of Monetary Policy. In spite of this, there has been no talk of further easing. Expect the Aussie Dollar to slide, if there is any dovish chatter in the minutes.
On the geopolitical risk front, chatter on trade will need monitoring. The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.67% to $0.6817.
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