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How will the French elections affect the Euro and forex trading?

Since there seem to be 2 very different and quite unusual candidates (ie. not usual left or right parties) elected for the second round of elections I'm curious to see what people think about the impact this would have on the Euro and on forex markets. Will be more prudent about your investments in the Eurozone? Thanks.

forex
trading

1 Answer

Hi Eric! That's a really good question. I am actually in France at the moment and most predict a drop in the value of the euro currency as well as a drop in confidence in investors in the case where Le Pen would win, since she has a very clear anti EU programme and she plans to go back to a national currency. Macron's proposal is the complete opposite as he is for strengthening France's bond with the EU, which makes him a much more favorable candidate for most European investors and traders. Although Macron seems to be ahead in the polls for voting intentions, the gap between him and Le Pen is quite narrow so nothing is definite of course. Le Pen has been arguing that a French monetary policy would strengthen the country's economy, so who knows, maybe some investors will also root for her. I would expect that the uncertainty of the next 15 days leading up to the final elections will certainly make forex traders and investors a little more cautious. At the same time the UK elections in June and the Brexit negotiations will also probably affect the currency markets all throughout the next year and more...

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Totally agree! Macron isn't really going to rock the boat it seems, so it's the safest bet for market stability.

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