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Mortgages, ECB Tightening: Families Struggling, but Hope for Future Rate Cuts

The rise in European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates has caused a financial storm for Italian families, jeopardizing the sustainability of variable-rate mortgages. According to a survey commissioned by, over 200,000 families have skipped at least one installment in the past year due to the rate hike, leading to an increase in installments by up to 65%.

Mortgages: Current Situation and Future Prospects

Bank of Italy has revealed that the APR for mortgages in October reached 4.72%, marking the highest level since January 2009. The good news is that the prospect of future rate cuts, driven by a stagnant economy and declining inflation, offers hope to struggling families. Euribor futures indicate the possibility of a decrease in March 2024, potentially benefiting families with variable-rate mortgages.

Mortgages: Impact on Families and Adopted Strategies

Financial tightening has severely impacted Italian families, leading many to renegotiate or seek alternatives to reduce the burden of installments. Approximately 21% have renegotiated terms with their bank, while 6.4% have partially extinguished their mortgages. However, 27.9% faced difficulties in renegotiation, and 24.3% attempted substitution without success.

Mortgages: Impact on Businesses

Not only families but also businesses are feeling the effects of rising rates. Loans for amounts up to one million carry interest rates of 5.95%, putting small and medium-sized enterprises under significant strain. The slowdown in credit flow, down 5.5% in October, could jeopardize investment plans.

Hope for Future Cuts and Uncertainties

Hope for future cuts by the ECB is fueled by market expectations, but uncertainties persist. Many ECB board members categorically exclude cuts in the first quarter of 2024. This scenario could worsen the situation for many families, putting installment payments at risk.

Global Economic Context

The global economic context is a crucial variable in this situation. The European economy, with falling inflation and stagnant growth, may prompt the ECB to consider rate cuts earlier than analysts’ previous forecasts. However, this depends on various factors, including the stability of the global economy and the internal situation of the eurozone.

Market Analysis and Expectations

Market expectations play a significant role in future prospects. According to futures updated as of December 4 on Euribor, the index could drop to 3.68% as early as March 2024. This potential decrease would provide relief for families with variable-rate mortgages, reducing the current average installment from 750 euros to 660 euros by December 2024.

Hope for Future Cuts and Unknowns

Hope for future cuts is not without uncertainties. Many ECB board members oppose cuts in the first quarter of 2024, which could complicate the situation for those with variable rates. The survey has revealed that nearly half of those with variable-rate mortgages could face serious payment problems if rates remain high.


While Italian families grapple with the burden of variable-rate mortgages, the hope for future cuts offers a glimmer of relief. However, uncertainty persists, and the situation remains critical for those dependent on variable mortgages. The anticipation of the ECB’s decisions on December 14 leaves many hopeful for a change that can alleviate financial pressure on Italian families. Global economic stability and ECB decisions will be crucial for the future of Italian families and businesses.


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