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HomeNewsEurozone: Inflation Slows to 2.4%, 2024 Economic Outlook in Focus

Eurozone: Inflation Slows to 2.4%, 2024 Economic Outlook in Focus

The European Statistical Office (EUROSTAT) has confirmed the slowdown in inflation in the Eurozone in November, with consumer prices rising by 2.4% on an annual basis. This figure aligns with preliminary estimates and is below the 2.9% recorded in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices experienced a decrease of 0.6%, exceeding expectations of -0.5% and contrasting with the +0.1% of the previous month.

Core inflation, excluding more volatile elements such as fresh food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, showed a growth of 3.6% on an annual basis, down from the 4.2% recorded in the previous month. The monthly variation was -0.6%, in line with forecasts and compared to the +0.2% previously.

Inflation in the European Union: National Data and Prospects

In the entire European Union, inflation fell to 3.1% on an annual basis, marking a decrease from the 3.6% in October, while on a monthly basis, a decline of -0.4% was observed.

Looking at national data, the lowest annual rates were recorded in Belgium (-0.8%) and Denmark (0.3%). Specifically, Italy recorded an annual rate of 0.6%, down from 1.8% in October and 5.6% in September.

2024 Economic Outlook: A Careful Analysis of Variables

Looking to the future, the economic prospects for 2024 appear moderately optimistic. Despite inflation being contained, an economic stagnation scenario is predicted, with a prospect of recovery in 2025.

The Bank of Italy has released its Macroeconomic Projections, indicating a growth of 0.6% in 2024 and a gradual recovery in the following two years. However, the forecast is conditioned by global and national variables, including the geopolitical landscape, financial stability, and energy transition.

Impacts and Challenges for the Government in 2024

The implications of this economic framework for the government are significant. While there is the prospect of a budget correction in 2024, there are also social tensions due to the redistributive effects of inflation, disadvantaging the segment of the population with lower disposable income.

In summary, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of transition, with significant challenges for the Italian economy. Positive conditions may stem from the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, but the global and national context presents variables that make the path complex.

In conclusion, the slowdown in inflation offers a moderately positive outlook, but economic and social challenges require careful management by the government in the coming year.

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