The main European stock markets had a lackluster start, with Milan recording a 0.58% decline, despite the positive performance of Amplifon, which saw a 2.4% increase. The day also witnessed sales on Eni (-1.4%), Saipem (-0.7%), and Tenaris (-0.7%).
Focus on Markets and Week Outlook
Throughout the week, investors are eagerly anticipating significant events, including a focus on US inflation set to be disclosed on Thursday. Speeches by central bankers from the Fed and the ECB will be crucial, along with the beginning of the new earnings season in the United States. The first results from banking giants will be closely monitored.
Today, data on retail sales and confidence indicators for the eurozone are scheduled. German data on factory orders and trade balance fell below expectations. On the bond market, the Btp-Bund spread remains just below 170 basis points.
European Markets Open Weak
In the first session of the week, major European stock markets showed a weak opening. Paris fell by 0.19%, London by 0.29%, Frankfurt by 0.09%, and Madrid by 0.29%. Milan, in particular, recorded a 0.58% decline.
Persistent Weakness in European Markets
After an exceptional 2023 with an average of +19% for continental markets and +28% for Milan, European stock markets still seem trapped in the weakness of the holiday season. Despite expectations, the current situation suggests a new session marked by feebleness.
Week Outlook and US Inflation
With no prominent macroeconomic data this week, attention remains focused on US inflation, to be revealed on Thursday. This data will be crucial to understand the future decisions of the Fed ahead of the January 31 meeting. Raphael Bostic from the Fed is scheduled to speak today.
On the European front, German industrial orders fell by 4.4% compared to the same period last year. Wednesday and Thursday will see data from France and Italy.
Performance of Stocks at Piazza Affari
Amplifon was one of the most capitalized stocks in the spotlight, with a surge of +1.66%, supported by Morgan Stanley’s upgrade. The banking sector saw Banca Monte Paschi Siena leading with +1.19%, while Banca Mediolanum recorded a rise of 0.83% thanks to good net inflows in December. Leonardo saw profit-taking of -0.61%. In the oil sector, Eni lost 2.11%, Saipem 2.58%, and Tenaris 0.80%.
Currency Markets and Commodities
On the currency front, the euro is down to $1.092, while the dollar/yen exchange is at 144. The Brent crude oil is quoted around $78 per barrel, with a focus on disruptions in the Red Sea routes. Natural gas traded in Amsterdam is down to just over €33 per megawatt-hour.
The spread between Btp and Bund is slightly up, standing around 170 basis points. The yield on the Italian benchmark ten-year bond is at 3.88%, while that of the Bund is at 2.18%.
Asia closed in the red, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange falling due to the announcement of the arrest of Evergrande New Energy Vehicle’s CEO. Tokyo remained closed for the holidays.
In conclusion, European markets face a sluggish start to the year, with investors’ attention focused on US inflation and upcoming developments in international financial markets. Amplifon stands out positively, while the overall context suggests caution and attention to imminent events. Investors remain in anticipation of clear signals to assess the future direction of markets, with the hope that upcoming macroeconomic events will bring greater clarity and stability.